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Running commentary from SVP and Chief Data Analyst Campbell Faulkner on the events surrounding the severe weather in Texas, its repercussions on the power grid and reliability.
02/11/21 – ERCOT looks to be starting off with a rough Thursday. The next few days could spur a repeat of 2011 due to the extreme cold hitting the TEXAS ISO.
It is amazing to see how volatile power prices are in ERCOT. Other RTO/ISO’s have been this way too due to the very cold conditions facing North America currently.
02/12/2021 -ERCOT is really showing large demand with wind and PV low due to the weather conditions. LMP prices are popping due to extreme cold (Houston could be the coldest since 1989) coupled with high winter time heating/electrical demand.
02/13/2021– ERCOT today displayed what happens when truly bitter winter weather impacts the TEXAS ISO. Almost all day well above $1,000.00 per mwh, a price cap strike, and a hope that anyone using Griddy has switched providers. Seriously folks, do not float the LMP, you will lose any savings in the few “rare” times that the grid is really pushed. This is why dispatchable resources (gas turbines folks) are so important to grid stability vs. the green push everyone is over investing in.
02/14/2021– Another post about ERCOT struggling with the extreme cold. Lets all hope that rotating outages are not implemented due to plants and gas storage fields freezing up due to lack of insulation and glycol warmers. The overall spare capacity is alarming as well as the real concern over missed dispatches over the next two days. Due to tight reserve margins, any failed unit dispatch could push the grid into a CAISO like situation from back in Sept. 2020.
02/15/2021– This is very bad for ERCOT, lots of frozen homes and people suffering from rotating outages. Wind fleet MIA, obviously solar doesn’t work at night. We need more gas turbines Texas.
MISO getting in on the action.
SPP too is getting battered, all of the middle North American is getting hammered.
To all Texans without power, I hope you and your family stays safe. The grid should be in rough shape tonight due to huge demand, zero wind, tripping thermal units, and just overall difficult control conditions – ERCOT is trying and any coordinator would struggle. This is when grid operation becomes nearly impossible: massive gas demand prioritized for residential heating (less for generation), other gas units simply failing due to designs for warm weather peaking (not enough winterization), fewer thermal coal units due to retirements, increased demand since the 2011 cold event due to population growth, and the inability for ERCOT massive wind nameplate to be a huge aide (we need it tonight).
02/17/2021– First: MISO, SPP, and the western system are all suffering due to unprecedented demand and have also had rotating outages, so folks this isn’t just a Texas problem. Second, thermal, wind and PV all failed during this, there is no redemption. Most of the thermal nameplate that failed to dispatch is NOT RATED to run in the winter, its summertime peaking only… renewables, which are the lion share of new ERCOT capacity have done nothing and are vastly under performing (do not mention grid scale batteries, they don’t exist meaningfully). Fourth, a massive amount of thermal coal was “bid into” retirement due to, in my opinion, too cheap of bidding into the dispatch stack for intermittent non-schedulable resources. When you combine these factors along with growing load, an event like this was inevitable. I always thought it would be a summer failure, and have been warning about this for years. Note: I don’t have a renewable axe to grid, I just care deeply about grid reliability.
Thank god ERCOT did rotating outages, otherwise an islanding event and full system trip could have tested our dark start capability. I’m not very confident in our dark start or system recovery due to how bad the 2003 Northeast blackout was.
SPP is getting hammered today.
MISO showing some system line/bus constraints.
02/18/2021– Things are slowly improving in ERCOT today with more units online and greater spare capacity. What is worrisome now is that the weather is turning (hasn’t warmed up too much) very cold again tonight and tomorrow. EEA3 is still in place and homes that have been able to thaw today might be plunged back into darkness via rotating outages again. Things to watch out for are continued large clock errors in ERCOT which indicated control difficulties syncing the system for grid tie. Again the rotating outages are important to prevent an islanding event.
Disclaimer : The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organization, employer or company and should not be used to make investment decisions. Some images in this blog are not that of our own.
Barchart and OTC Global Holdings Announce Commodity Data Partnership
by Colleen Sheeren, Head of Marketing, Barchart, November 20, 2020
CHICAGO, IL – November 19, 2020 – Barchart, a leading provider of market data and technology services to the financial, media, and commodity industries, has announced a new partnership with OTC Global Holdings, the world’s largest independent institutional broker of commodities, to deliver commodity forward curve data from their EOXLive market data platform.
Under this new partnership, EOXLive forward curve data for crude oil, natural gas, and global refined products will be made available for subscription through the cmdty Pricing Network (CPN), giving Barchart users access to the leader in independent pricing for physical energy markets. All pricing contributed by EOXLive is available for users to access through cmdtyView Pro, cmdtyView Excel, or through an enterprise data solution.
“OTC Global Holdings’ EOXLive platform provides extensive data coverage for the energy markets which will provide our software and enterprise data clients with access to deeper sets of energy market data,” says Barchart CEO Mark Haraburda. “Through the CPN, OTC Global Holdings will be able to access our client network to accelerate the distribution of their pricing for physical energy markets.”
“We are excited to be working with Barchart and look forward to developing this partnership,” says Daniel Porton, Head of Market Data Sales & Business Development at OTC Global Holdings. “Barchart has built a very strong reputation, providing innovative solutions across data, software and technology. We can now combine this with EOXLive data reports which draw from the deep liquidity of OTCGH’s breadth of brokerages as well as superior modeling abilities. This new partnership will provide a powerful solution for traders, risk managers and analysts.”
To learn more or to subscribe to EOXLive’s pricing data, please click here.
Barchart’s cmdty Pricing Network is designed to increase transparency in global commodity markets by facilitating access to global commodity prices from leading brokerages and traders of physical commodities. To apply for membership to the cmdty Pricing Network, and unlock access to Barchart’s broad distribution footprint, please click here.
Visit our website to learn how cmdty by Barchart is becoming the leader in commodity data.
Barchart is a leading provider of market data and services to the global financial, media, and commodity industries. Our diversified client base trusts Barchart’s innovative Solutions across data, software, and technology to power their operation from front to back office, while our Media brands enable financial and commodity professionals to make decisions through web content, news, and publications. For more information, please visit www.barchart.com/solutions.
by Mark Watson, October 29, 2020
Houston — A new study indicates that by the end of 2025, the COVID-19 crisis would likely diminish electricity usage by 65.2 TWh to 158.8 TWh, or 1.6% to 4%, reducing the need for baseload generation by 28 GW, about which industry observers differed Oct. 27.
The Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy announced on Oct. 26 the publication of a new research paper, “Potential Implications of the COVID-19 Crisis on Long-term Electricity Demand in the United States,” by A.J. Goulding, a non-resident fellow of the CGEP and president of London Economics International, with research by LEI’s Mugwe Kiragu and David Nour Berro.
“Experience from the [2008-09] global financial crisis suggests that load is unlikely to immediately revert to previous levels following the impact of COVID-19, and that load growth may be further dampened,” the report states.
COVID-19-related reasons for weaker power demand include the following, according to the study:
- A shift to working from home
- A shift to shopping online
- Less overnight travel
- Less frequent eating at restaurants
If the power sector and regulators fail to adjust to this new situation, consumers may face unnecessary added costs, and investors could face substantial losses, the paper states.
However, Travis Whalen, a power market analyst at S&P Global Platts Analytics, said the CGEP report’s load decrease projections “appear to be overstated, particularly in the commercial sector.”
The report projects that by the end of 2025, COVID-19 will have decreased annual power demand by 4 TWh to 47 TWh in offices, by 111 to 193 TWh in the retail sector and between zero and 33 TWh in the hospitality sector.
Platts Analytics expects similar declines in load but because of previous trends in energy efficiency and distributed generation, not COVID-19, Whalen said in an Oct. 27 email.
“Ongoing analysis of coronavirus impacts to demand has indicated that most regions across the country are at pre-COVID levels,” Whalen said.
In contrast, Campbell Faulkner, OTC Global Holdings senior vice president and chief data analyst, said the CGEP report “fits pretty much in line with what I have been theorizing and seeing from load data.”
“[It] makes perfect sense for a 3% decline to appear when there is moderate, or in this case severe, economic contraction,” Faulkner said.
“The assumption of growth in residential power consumption replacing the sharp decline commercial demand seems far-fetched due to the ‘relatively’ smooth 24/7 loads that residential consumers place on the grid,” Faulkner said. “Overall, the efficiency gains at the residential level via [heating, ventilation and air conditioning] upgrades, more efficient appliances, lights, etc., mean that the climb back up to 2019 load could take even longer than the more aggressive pessimistic case.”
Timothy Fox, a research analyst at ClearView Energy Partners, an energy market consultancy, said the CGEP report’s findings “appear to align with” the US Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, which concludes that power demand to total 3,657 TWh/year in 2020, down 3.2% from a three-year national average.
Matthew Cordaro, a former Midcontinent Independent System Operator president and CEO who now resides in New York, said he expects “COVID-suppressed power demand will probably remain at its current level into the middle of 2021 and increase gradually thereafter.”
“Baseload capacity will probably underrun earlier projections preceding the pandemic, first because of less need with an economy that must reestablish itself and a delay in the ambitious schedule for renewables set earlier,” Cordaro said. “The main exception to all of this would depend on dramatic political developments following the upcoming election.”
Randy Jones, principle at Mountaineer Market Advisors, a Texas-based energy market consultancy was not surprised by the CGEP report’s projections, given the shift toward working from home.
“The change will likely be a ‘sticky’ one as many businesses find ways to optimize around the arrangement and more advanced tech tools are developed to support the shift,” Jones said.
But Joshua Rhodes, a research associate at the University of Texas Webber Energy Group, held out hope for electrification expanding power demand. “I think longer-term we will see more electricity use as transportation and (later) heat electrify, but a lot could be impacted by what happens in the election and how a stimulus bill might impact investment,” Rhodes said in an Oct. 27 email.
Some areas might have lower power demand “but not all,” Rhodes said.
The report suggests that independent system operators adjust their capacity mechanisms “to reflect long-run demand destruction.”
“In 2019, capacity cost consumers in New England and PJM alone a total of $12.4 billion,” the report states. “Reducing this number could provide meaningful savings to consumers.”
Please find the article linked here including full coverage: COVID-19’s long-term effects may cut need for baseload generation: study
OTC GLOBAL HOLDINGS ANNOUNCES FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS WITH DATA PARTNER ABACUS SOLUTIONS INC
LONDON (October 1st 2020) – OTC Global Holdings (OTCGH), the leading independent interdealer broker in over-the-counter commodities, has further expanded its data services with new developments from data partner Abacus Solutions including their release of Saturn 9.0.
Abacus Solutions Inc has released SATURN 9.0, a new version of its flagship integrated CTRM system. SATURN is an enterprise business management system that integrates several key applications including Generation Management, Trade Management, Credit Management, Market Analysis, Business Intelligence, and Retail Management. SATURN facilitates improved decisions and helps analyze corporate and functional risks, revenues, costs, and profits for a portfolio of plants, trades, and other assets. Using modern technology, SATURN helps users realize significant benefits and gain unique and sustainable competitive advantages.
“We are pleased with the development of our partnership with OTC Global Holdings (EOXLive) which offers joint products and services that enable our clients to achieve operational excellence and gain and sustain competitive advantages” said Dr. Salim J. Jabbour, founder and CEO of Abacus Solutions Inc. “Our partnership with EOX enables our clients to streamline their market analysis process and integrate updated forward curves in their daily asset management, trading, and hedging decisions”, he added.
“We are delighted to be collaborating with our data partner Abacus Solutions Inc. Abacus Solutions Inc is the developer of SATURN, an integrated enterprise-wise ETRM system (front, mid, back office) with decision support capabilities and additional unique tools ” said Campbell L. Faulkner Senior Vice President and Chief Data Analyst at OTC Global Holdings (EOXLive).
As with all OTCGH Market Data products the data reports draw from the deep liquidity of OTCGH’s breadth of brokerages and leverage the company’s well-known EOXLive broking/trading platform.
OTC Global Holdings (EOXLive) is continuously expanding its suite of data resources which currently includes end-of-day forward curve reports for: North American (NA) Natural Gas Basis and Power forward curves each with 120 months of monthly granularity, NA Natural Gas implied volatilities covering basis options markets data, Power implied volatilities covering NA electricity options, global Natural Gas Liquids forward curves, NA Power/Natural Gas forward correlations, global Crude Oil forward curves, global Coal forward curves, global Freight forward curves, European NGLs, global Refined Products, European Crude Oil, Refined Products forward curves and European Natural Gas & Power forward curves.
For more information about OTCGH please visit www.otcgh.com and to learn more about EOXLive, visit the www.otcgh.com/eox or contact EOXLive via email at email@example.com or phone: 877-737- 8511.
About OTC Global Holdings
Formed in 2007, OTC Global Holdings has become the world’s largest independent institutional broker of commodities, covering financial and physical instruments from offices in Chicago, Des Moines, Geneva, Houston, London, Louisville, New Jersey, New York and Singapore. The company is a leading liquidity provider on CBOT, ICE, NYMEX and NFX, ranking number one amongst its peers in numerous derivatives contracts across biofuels, emissions, commodity index products, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), metals, petrochemicals and refined products, power, proppants, soft commodities, and weather derivatives. The company serves more than 450 institutional clients, including over 70 members of the Global Fortune 500, and transacts in hundreds of different commodity delivery points in Asia, Europe and the Americas. To learn more about the company, please visit www.otcgh.com or go to https://player.vimeo.com/video/146686709.
About EOX Holdings LLC
EOX Holdings LLC (EOX) is registered as an Introducing Broker with the National Futures Association (NFA). EOX delivers unique and comprehensive market data, introducing broker (IB) services and the EOXLive platform. EOXLive provides order and trade management, confirms, reporting and clearing for thousands of trader, hedger and market maker accounts. EOXLive Active Markets delivers comprehensive on-screen price discovery while keeping the important human element in the trader and broker relationship. Leveraging the liquidity of nearly 20 brokerage shops across the commodity spectrum, EOXLive customers have transparency and execution capabilities so they can trade like never before. EOX Holdings LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of OTC Global Holdings.
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